Interest rate hike ahead?
from San Diego Union Tribune (03.13.2015)
Bob Rauch on the EconoMeter panel as they second guess the Feds.
Interest rate hike ahead?
Bob Rauch: No
“The Fed’s dual mandate is to provide for low unemployment and keep inflation in check. While falling unemployment is a favorable sign, there are broader macroeconomic factors that are keeping interest rates low, including the fall in oil prices, anemic growth in Europe and political paralysis in Washington.
Low interest rates for the foreseeable future will help to mitigate these other challenges that could hinder economic growth.
At the end of the day, interest rates will likely rise this summer but it will not be solely due to favorable job numbers but rather a combination of many macroeconomic factors.
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New recording fee for affordable housing?
from San Diego Union Tribune (03.06.2015)
Bob Rauch on the EconoMeter panel as they discuss the proposal in Sacramento:
New recording fee for affordable housing?
Bob Rauch: No
“While a good idea in theory, the cost of real estate transactions in California is already among the highest in the nation and every ancillary fee, no matter how small, is another deterrent to development. Affordable housing is a serious issue statewide but it should be handled through public-private partnerships instead of yet another government mandate that deters business transactions in the state.
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Hospitality Industry Service Leadership 2015
A “business success plan” for the hospitality industry requires a new set of disciplines. Today, knowledge acquisition of the changing technologies alone represents a challenge. Coupled with strong service leadership skills, the transfer of the success plan to each unit manager is made much easier.
Perhaps the most critical items for a business success plan are to have a vision, a clearly defined set of goals and a “glass is half full” mindset. If the vision is to lead the market in revenues and one of the goals is raising revenues through average rate or check average, detailed knowledge of the competition is paramount. The goal should be stated (in writing for emphasis) to the entire staff and accountability for achieving each goal should be determined for the sales department and front desk in a hotel, servers and hosts in a restaurant, etc. If the leader exhibits a positive approach to goal achievement, success is much more attainable. Lastly, this vision should be good for five years or more and should define a commitment to a legacy, culture and/or a brand.
The Good News Keeps Arriving for the Local Hotel Industry
from San Diego Business Journal (March 27, 2015) San Diego County’s hotel industry is on track to see another stellar year in 2015, and likely into 2016, said experts at a recent Lodging Industry Forecast forum
SD hotel industry strong, but with pitfalls
from San Diego Daily Transcript (3/20/2015)
The state of San Diego’s hotel industry was the topic of “An Extraordinary Year Ahead,” the 2015 Lodging Industry meeting Friday at the Hilton Garden Inn in Del Mar Heights.
Hotel Expert Predicts Record Year for Lodging Industry
from Times of San Diego (3/20/2015)
San Diego hotel guru Robert Rauch predicted Friday that 2015 will turn out to be the best year for the hotel industry in San Diego and nationwide. “This is going to be the best year that the hotel industry ever had in the United states by a wide margin,” said Rauch, a hospitality professor and hotel developer. “I’m very bullish on 2015 and 2016.
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The Seventh Inning Begins
Baseball is a great game. Even if you do not play it, you can watch it or use it as a metaphor to depict where we are in the economic cycle. We have completed the sixth inning of this ball game. The “Great Recession” followed by the “Great Hangover” ended last year and there is some degree of certainty ahead. Occupancy and rate growth levels have both moved steadily upward on the hotel side. Meetings business is starting to see daylight and attractions are reporting positive year over year growth.
The tourism industry continues to show signs of growth relative to increased corporate demand, resulting in improved hotel occupancy and steady leisure demand which has firmed up rates. Average price increases were over 5 percent in primary markets in the United States in 2014 and according to our analysis, rates will grow at or beyond that level in 2015.
Water shortage: An economic challenge?
from San Diego Union Tribune (02.28.2015)
Bob Rauch on the EconoMeter panel as they discuss the economy and water shortage:
Water shortage: An economic challenge?
Bob Rauch: Yes
“Most of San Diego’s water comes from out of the region and this is not sustainable. Our region is already building a desalination plant in Carlsbad that will provide 10 percent of our water needs and the city of San Diego is experimenting with recycled water that can meet another significant portion of our water needs.
These are proven methods already operating in other parts of the world that need to be expanded and incorporated into our regional economy but are a radical departure from how our region has sustained its water needs for over 100 years.
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Does a new stadium make economic sense?
from San Diego Union Tribune (02.22.2015)
Bob Rauch on the EconoMeter panel as they discuss a new Chargers stadium:
Does a new stadium make economic sense?
Bob Rauch: Yes
“But let’s not confuse economic home run with economic argument. The combination of financing from the NFL, Chargers, sponsorships and city land can pay for a stadium that will provide a Super Bowl or two, incredible public relations on game days with our incredible weather and a better return than the current Qualcomm Stadium lease that is living on fumes.
A new stadium will also stimulate other economic activity in the surrounding neighborhood that can be managed as to accommodate increased traffic and other impacts.
And let’s remember the importance of civic pride, no matter how difficult to measure.
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Do you deserve a raise?
from San Diego Union Tribune (02.14/2015)
Bob Rauch on the EconoMeter panel as they discuss raises:
Should employers start raising pay for employees again?
Bob Rauch: Yes
“Wages have been stagnant for several years and although this can be attributed to the slow recovery and historically low inflation, the economy is doing very well and at some point, inflation will return to normal levels. From 2009 to 2011, employees suffered with minimal or no wage increases and since then, wage growth has been modest at best.
Employees proved their resilience through the Great Recession and deserve to be better compensated as companies have begun to earn stronger profits.
It is the least we can do to reward the most important assets of our businesses.
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