All-Star Game: A summer economic assist?
EconoMeter panel looks at this week’s sporting fest at Petco Park
Q: Will the All-Star Game Week activities boost San Diego’s economy?
Bob’s Answer: Yes
The All-Star game is a prestigious event that adds hotel room nights, food, beverage, retail spending and much more. Further, the national publicity that San Diego will receive from television and other media coverage is unprecedented because no city has a better environment to promote than San Diego.
While ComiCon, a Super Bowl and other events eclipse this game in spending, this comes during the slowest July week, just after the 4th.
The Lodging Landscape: 2016 Midpoint
The first half of 2016 included a bit of a negative impact from China’s economy, some terrorism events and a softer than predicted first half in terms of financial performance. Here is a primer on where we are in this noble institution of hospitality…
Brexit impact on San Diego: A plus or minus?
EconoMeter panel reacts to U.K. vote to leave EU
Q: Will Britain’s vote to leave the European Union threaten San Diego’s economy?
Bob’s answer: NO
Certainly there will be significant impacts and uncertainty in the U.K. and Eurozone. However, the U.S. economy will not be materially impacted by Brexit after the initial “shake-out.” Statistically, the dollar volume of trade with San Diego is insignificant.
The bottom line is that there will be uncertainty and speculation but likely there will be opportunities like interest rate reductions, as well as challenges like other countries exiting the EU.
A Tragic Accident – What Can We Do Better?
Recent Tragedy In Orlando Highlights Need To Review Policies And Procedures
The Graves family of Elkhorn, NE was doing what millions of families do each year when tragedy struck. A vacation gone awry; no one saw it coming. The evening was spent watching an outdoor movie at Disney’s Grand Floridian Resort & Spa when around 9:00 p.m. two-year-old Lane Graves waded into a nearby lagoon in about a foot of water and was attacked by an alligator. Matt Graves, the boy’s father, jumped in to try to save him. His mother and other witnesses also tried to assist in saving him, but they were too late.
This was a tragic accident that begs the question, was it “unforeseen?” As one who is not an attorney and not involved in any direct knowledge of this accident, I certainly would not want to weigh in on what might be found in the event there is litigation. Was Disney’s “no swimming” sign appropriate? Were alligators known to be inhabiting that lake? Either way, my condolences go out to the family and everyone involved for having to endure such a horrific experience. It is hard to fathom that this occurred when the Graves family was supposed to be creating life-long memories on their vacation.
Each day, America’s hoteliers, restaurateurs, night club operators and attraction managers accept responsibility for the health and safety of millions of men, women and children. These operators must also accept the possibility of an accident that will likely bring public attention upon themselves, their property and their guests. When an event happens, operators must communicate effectively with their guests, team members, the media and public safety officials. Once a crisis occurs, the media and the public are going to want answers as to why it happened, who was involved, when it happened, and let’s be honest, who was to blame. Every property, regardless of size, needs an emergency response and preparedness plan for the aftermath of an attack that includes the following:
Guaranteed income to replace welfare, Social Security?
EconoMeter checks out this radical solution to big bureaucracies
Q: Should federal welfare, Social Security and other payments be replaced by a guaranteed annual income for all?
Bob’s answer: NO.
The United States is too large for an experiment of this type.
As we have found with Obamacare and programs run by our government, the private sector does a better job.
The concept of a universal basic income (UBI) would never be implemented without a revolution of the masses who likely will expect Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and more in addition to the UBI.
Moreover, the U.S. could become a refugee camp.
President and economy: The limits of power
Q: Can (or should) a president change the economy by sheer assertion and executive order?
Bob’s answer: NO.
If you look at Presidents Reagan and Clinton, they performed best economically when compared to all recent presidents.
Neither of them operated by executive order, rather, by asserting themselves in the areas of domestic spending that would most benefit the economy.
Differences in performance come down to luck more than policy. When volatile energy and food components are stripped out of inflation calculations, prices in the U.S. don’t rise or fall under particular administrations.
SB 1350: A Plus or Minus?
PHOENIX – Short-term online home rental services such as Airbnb, VRBO and HomeAway previously have been restricted by Arizona local governments whereas progressive cities such as San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York City legalized the start-up services some time ago. Now a law, SB 1350 prohibits the banning of short-term rentals. Governor Doug Ducey recently signed this legislation that prohibits turning property owners into outlaws because they allow paying guests to stay in their homes.
The intent is to develop public policy that encourages a sharing economy in Arizona and advocates for some travel lobbying groups support the new law. Homeowners claim the new law will benefit Arizona’s tourism however, other Phoenix residents want to keep quiet neighborhoods from becoming raucous hotels.
How will these affect the hotel and real estate industries in the Valley? It seems reasonable that Airbnb will impact existing hotels in terms of curtailing the growth of average daily rates. The fluid nature of Airbnb supply suggests that historic price premiums realized during peak demand periods will be mitigated.
Bob Rauch is a hotelier and founder of hotel management company, RAR Hospitality, and a hotel guru who forecasts hotel/travel trends. RAR Hospitality manages five properties in Phoenix including Hampton Inn and Suites Phoenix/Tempe and Red Lion Inn Tempe – two branded hotels that attract corporate business travelers.
Rauch tells GlobeSt.com: “Airbnb also impacts the housing industry, creating both a shortage of housing units and potentially an increase in rents from those units remaining in the normal apartment pool. Airbnb is a big business that in essence avoids the responsibilities of being in business and puts consumers at risk in regards to safety, background checks, and health or fire standards.
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Like Sweden, a 6-hour workday for Americans?
EconoMeter weighs the pros and cons of a 25% reduction in time (but not in pay)
Q: Would the economy be better off with a six-hour workday?
Bob’s Answer: NO
Productivity would be reduced, small businesses would be negatively impacted and there is no statistically valid or reliable evidence to the contrary. While several European countries have strong productivity models worthy of review, there needs to be a balance between the personal needs of employees and the needs of businesses.
A Slow Start, But Will It Continue?
At Woodstock, Neil Young got up to the microphone and said, “this song starts out slow and fizzles out altogether.” Well, this year started out slow but it will not fizzle out. Contrary to those pundits who feel the party is over, 2016 will continue…