San Diego Hotels Carried Summer Momentum Into August

Forecast & Market Update for San Diego | September 2026

August is usually the month when a San Diego summer shows whether it had real legs. This year it did. County RevPAR reached $177.00, up 7.1% from about $165 last August, and the growth came from both rate and occupancy.

I have found that the months after a big event stretch tend to be more telling than the event months themselves. With the World Cup behind us and Comic-Con wrapped, August was mostly the underlying market. It held up.

Rate Is Still Doing Most of the Work

ADR growth of 4.8% accounted for most of the August gain, which is the same pattern I pointed to in my midyear review. Occupancy added 2.2% on top of it. In my experience, a market that grows on both lines at once in a peak month is not being propped up by discounting.

Supply barely moved. Daily room supply averaged 68,460, up just 0.4%, while room nights sold rose 3.4% to 1.73 million. Room revenue for the month came to $389.85 million, up 7.8%. When demand outpaces new rooms by that margin, operators generally have room to hold rate into the shoulder season.

The Summer Stretch Tells the Better Story

I like to look at the three summer months together rather than month by month. June through August averaged 84.0% occupancy, $236.31 ADR, and $198.86 RevPAR. That is roughly 10% ahead of the same three months last year.

July was the high point at $221.26 RevPAR, up 10.4%. My read is that July benefited from World Cup overflow and Comic-Con landing in the same window. August cooled from there, as it usually does, but it cooled from a much higher base.

Booking Costs Moved in the Right Direction

Booking cost per room night fell 2.9% to $7.30. That stands out because it rose year over year in every month from February through July, peaking at $8.75 in July. For owners, that is margin that stays at the property rather than going to distribution.

The hotels I have seen hold their booking costs down in peak months generally do it with a strong direct and group base. That tends to show up most in shoulder months, when the easy leisure demand fades.

Six of Seven Submarkets Grew, and Downtown Led the Turn

Downtown and Marinas posted the strongest growth in the county at +10.9%, with occupancy up 4.5% and ADR up 6.1%. In May, Downtown had the sharpest decline of any submarket. I have always believed Downtown lives and dies by the convention calendar, and August is a good reminder of how quickly that works in both directions.

Del Mar and UTC had the county’s highest RevPAR at $221.35, up 9.3%. Nearly all of it came from rate, with ADR up 7.6% to $262.93. The mix of bioscience, leisure, and group demand there tends to support rate discipline, and August followed that pattern.

Oceanside and Carlsbad went the other way, growing mostly on occupancy (up 3.7%) with ADR up just 1.6%. Northeast and Escondido looked similar. In my experience, when a coastal leisure market grows on volume rather than rate in peak season, it is worth asking whether rate was left on the table.

South County grew 6.2%. That is a far cry from the 42% June jump driven by the Gaylord ramp-up, and I think that is healthy. As the resort laps its first full year, growth tends to settle into something more sustainable. Occupancy of 73.6% is still the lowest in the county, so there is room to build.

SeaWorld and Mission Valley grew 4.6%, almost entirely on rate. With the 148-room Element San Diego Mission Valley opening this summer, the addition of one hotel should not have any material impact on market occupancy or rate.

East County was the only submarket to decline, down 3.4% on both lower occupancy and slightly lower rate. It was also the weakest submarket in the spring. Casino competition continues to weigh on rate there.

Where the Year Stands Against My Forecast

Through August, San Diego RevPAR is running about 8.9% ahead of the same eight months of 2025. May (-4.4%) is still the only down month this year. In June, I raised my full-year call from 2 to 3% to roughly 5%.

The fall comparisons look easy. Last year, RevPAR fell in every month from September through December: -8.8% in September, -5.2% in October, -5.1% in November, and -4.4% in December. Against that base, I think the full year is more likely to finish above 5% than below it, but we will hold it at 5% and see what happens!

What I Am Watching This Fall

Group demand looks healthy. Manchester Grand Hyatt San Diego is completing a two-year renovation of all 1,628 rooms and more than 320,000 square feet of meeting space this winter. The Hotel del Coronado has finished a $550 million renovation, and TED moves its flagship conference to San Diego starting March 2027.

New supply stays modest. The 148-room Element San Diego Mission Valley is the kind of addition the market can absorb without much pressure on rate.

The risk I’m watching is leisure price sensitivity. If fuel prices or the broader economy start to weigh on drive-in travelers, the shoulder months tend to feel it first.

The Bottom Line

San Diego came out of its biggest summer in years with rates intact, occupancy up, and booking costs trending lower. With soft comparisons ahead, I expect the fourth quarter to look better on paper than it may feel on property. For more of the monthly history behind these numbers, see my San Diego hotel market trends page.

I work directly with San Diego owners and operators on exactly these questions: where rate can hold, where distribution cost is leaking, and how to plan around upcoming comparisons. Reach out as always.