Econometer: Is the yield curve change a sign of a recession?

Bob Rauch, R.A. Rauch & Associates

NO: Forget the yield curve unless it continues to be inverted over several months. The economy will likely perform well despite the global slowdown that we are currently enduring. The key to avoiding a recession is the consumer. Strong consumer confidence, continued low unemployment, low inflation and a solid Purchasing Managers Index will buy us another four quarters of modest growth. Election year economics may add another quarter.

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